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Diesel and gasoline cracks strengthened after a larger-than-expected US distillate inventory draw of 3.155 million barrels. Dangote cancelled June maintenance on its RFCC unit, and the Bilbao refinery shut its FCC for maintenance.
Tight US distillate stocks and firm refining margins support diesel prices, which feed directly into freight and fuel surcharge costs for feed transport.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.