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Brazilian President Lula reportedly overrode aides by weaving tax-relief measures for the poor into a fiscal package, diluting the spending plan. The move helped trigger a stock market rout, and the real fell to a record low against the dollar.
Fiscal uncertainty weakens the real, which raises the cost of imported feed ingredients and inputs for Brazilian buyers and can push up domestic inflation and interest rates.
bloomberg.comMartha Beck, Daniel Carvalho, Barbara Nascimento, Giovanna Bellotti AzevedoDec 2, 2024After 12 past bullish policy events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +1.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.0%), and +2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports of Lula diluting the fiscal package with tax relief deepened fiscal credibility worries and triggered a market rout with the real at a record low on Dec 2.
