
Russian wheat export prices fell for a third straight week as weak demand and lower Chicago and Paris prices weighed on the market. Sovecon cut barley by $6 to $248 per tonne, and Russia's 2021 wheat crop estimate was raised.
Traders are adjusting to a high Russian wheat export tax.
Improved Northern Hemisphere weather and a larger Russian crop expectation point to lower Black Sea wheat and barley export prices, although the export tax limits exports.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On the move date, Russian wheat and barley export prices fell for a third week on weak demand, a larger Russian crop estimate and lower Chicago and Paris futures, a bearish sentiment signal for feed grains including barley.