Permian natural gas cash prices at the Waha Hub fell back to near zero after recovering when the Gulf Coast Express pipeline started up. Forward prices also weakened after Kinder Morgan delayed the Permian Highway Pipeline from late 2020 to early 2021.
Prices have been very volatile, with Waha briefly falling below zero earlier in the year.
Pipeline takeaway constraints trap Permian gas in the basin, so regional prices collapse even when national prices hold. The delay extends this bottleneck and keeps forward regional prices weak.
After 29 past bearish logistics events, Natural Gas moved a median -9.8% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -20.0% to -3.1%), and -16.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.