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The euro fell broadly after ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday effectively ruled out the rate hike in 2022 that money markets had priced in. She said tightening policy now would choke off the economic recovery.
The euro was already down over 7% against the dollar that year.
Expectations of a later ECB hike than the Fed widen the rate gap in favour of the dollar, which pressures dollar-priced commodities and feed import costs in euro-linked markets.
reuters.comSaikat Chatterjee, Joice AlvesNov 16, 2021After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Lagarde's rejection of a 2022 rate hike on Nov 15-16 removed priced-in ECB tightening, sparking broad euro selling within the window.
