China's agriculture ministry said soybean meal prices, which had risen 20-30% in April, should ease after the May 1 holiday. Brazilian weather delays to soybean arrivals idled crushing plants, and Sinograin released 1.33 million tonnes of reserves.
The ministry expects 12 million tonnes of soybean imports in May and 11 million in June.
Expected arrivals of 23 million tonnes of imported soybeans over May-June should restart crushing and reduce soymeal tightness, pressuring Chinese meal prices lower.
After 118 past bearish weather events, SBM moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.