
Rice futures traded near $10.5 per hundredweight, close to their highest since October 17. The USDA November WASDE projected lower 2025/26 US rice production, down 7% from last year, with reduced ending stocks.
Tighter US supply and lower ending stocks support US rice futures, though strong Indian harvests limit the upside.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA's November WASDE cut 2025/26 US rice production about 7% with lower ending stocks, a direct supply-tightening signal that pushed US rough rice futures toward one-month highs just before the move.