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USDA forecasts 2026/27 US rice production at 158.2 million cwt, about 23% below last year and a 33-year low, on the lowest harvested area since 1972/73. Beginning stocks are a 40-year high at 58.4 million cwt, and ending stocks are projected at 40.4 million cwt.
CBOT rough rice has risen about 69% this year to roughly $16/cwt.
A sharply smaller US crop and a 31% drop in projected ending stocks tighten domestic supply and support prices, although the large opening stock cushions the shortfall.
mixedtimes.comTyler DurdenSep 22, 2026After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
