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A benchmark Asia rice price rose to its highest level in over a year, with Thai 5% broken at $446 a ton on May 20. The USDA forecasts global rice production in 2026-27 will decline for the first time in 11 years.
A USDA forecast of lower global rice output combined with higher fertilizer and fuel costs supports firmer rice prices and tighter feed-grade supply.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.