
The dollar fell on January 5 after the release of Federal Reserve FOMC minutes, but the larger driver was a collapse in the offshore yuan from 6.90 to 6.80 intraday. Offshore rates also surged, with overnight rates reportedly near 40%.
A sharp drop in the offshore yuan and a weaker dollar can ease pressure on dollar-priced feed commodities, although analysts expect the yuan move to be temporary.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The offshore yuan surged from 6.90 to 6.80 intraday on Jan 5 as overnight offshore rates spiked near 40%, which was the main driver of the dollar's fall against the yuan.