DeGolyer and MacNaughton is completing an independent audit of Saudi Arabia's maximum sustainable crude capacity, with findings due before the November 29 OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Saudi self-reported October output of 10.563 million bpd sits 1.369 million bpd above OPEC's secondary-source estimate.
The audit will set Saudi Arabia's 2027 quota.
The audit result could shape OPEC+ 2027 quotas and therefore future crude supply, a key input for energy and biofuel costs. A large reported gap adds uncertainty to supply forecasts and can move crude prices around the meeting.
After 41 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.0% to +1.9%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.