OPEC data indicate close oil supply-demand balance in 2026, no glut

After 41 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.0% to +1.9%), and +1.8% over 20.

• Feb 15, 2024Oil demand growth slowing as non-OPEC supply expands, says IEA | Reuters+1.1%
• Dec 11, 2025OPEC Keeps 2026 Oil Supply, Demand Outlook Steady in Latest Report - Bloomberg-4.0%
• Jan 31, 2018Oil rebounds, ends up on gasoline demand, OPEC compliance-2.3%
• Jan 3, 2024OPEC’s Crude Oil Output Steady in December Before New Supply Cuts - Bloomberg+2.3%
• Feb 21, 2018IEA, EIA, OPEC differ on 2018 supply, demand growth - BusinessDay NG, TV, and Podcast+3.3%

After 56 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Feb 15, 2024Oil demand growth slowing as non-OPEC supply expands, says IEA | Reuters+3.1%
• Jul 1, 2025OPEC trims 2025 oil demand growth estimate but hikes ‘call’ on its crude+4.3%
• Jan 31, 2018Oil rebounds, ends up on gasoline demand, OPEC compliance-1.8%
• Aug 31, 2021OPEC+ Sees 2021 Oil Deficit, 2022 Surplus as Supply Revived - Bloomberg-1.2%
• Jan 3, 2024OPEC’s Crude Oil Output Steady in December Before New Supply Cuts - Bloomberg+2.6%