Egyptian urea export prices have fallen from $535 to $500 per tonne, with further declines expected, as weak European demand and the absence of Indian tenders weigh on the market. At the same time, the government agreed with several fertilizer producers to raise gas prices by 50%, to $12.75 per MMBtu, in exchange for allowing full export of output for 45 days.
Egyptian urea is a key export supply, so lower offers and higher gas costs shape global nitrogen prices. Sources say the export deal only pays if global prices stay above about $464 per tonne.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.