
Saudi Arabia said it pumped 10.5 million barrels a day in October, a level reached only once since 2022, and Iraq and Kuwait also reported large increases. The UAE is now free of OPEC quotas and can pump as much as it wants.
Futures fell almost 25% for the month despite repeated tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
Ample crude supply and falling physical prices reduce energy costs for feed producers, including diesel, fertilizer and freight inputs. The recovery remains fragile, so erratic Hormuz flows could reverse the price decline quickly.
After 338 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -5.2% to +1.9%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.