
An IEEFA report, shared with Politico, warns the EU could face a gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres this winter, about 7% of demand. EU gas storage is just over 70%, the lowest for this time of year since 2011, and ENTSOG's outlook shows similar risks.
Tight European gas supply raises fertilizer (nitrogen) production costs and energy costs for EU processors, which can support feed prices and European crush and drying margins.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.