
Analysts expect a surge in US coal plant retirements starting in 2017, with Guggenheim forecasting 33 GW, double what has been announced. Gas storage has refilled slower than usual, and gas for March delivery is up more than 10% since last month.
Coal retirements shift power generation toward gas, adding up to about 1 Bcf/d of demand per year and supporting gas prices, which raises energy costs for feed processing.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.