Egypt has agreed with seven fertilizer producers that each will prepay $25 million for gas supply at a temporary price of $12.75 per MMBtu, up from $8.50, for 45 days from November 16. Gas supply cuts of 20% to 40% remain in place, and the companies are allowed to export their full current output during the period.
Reduced gas availability cuts Egyptian nitrogen output, while the export allowance lets plants sell into a market where urea is near $500 per tonne. This supports global urea prices, which feed into the cost of corn production.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.