Loading…
The IEA projects a global oil supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026. Global refinery throughput fell by 1.3 million barrels per day in October to 81.3 million barrels, and the IEA forecasts a recovery to 84.7 million barrels per day in December.
Diesel supplies remain exposed to Middle East losses and disrupted Russian flows, while U.S. refineries are increasing runs to capture higher margins.
Refining constraints can keep diesel prices elevated even when crude is in surplus, which keeps trucking and transport costs high for feed buyers. Crude prices may fall faster than diesel, narrowing the margin benefit.
dailybeirut.comDaily Beirut NewsroomNov 15, 2026After 11 past neutral macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.6% to +4.1%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
