
Markets nearly doubled their expected Fed tightening through September 2027, from about 47 to about 90 basis points, after a hawkish Fed comment and a hot October CPI. The dollar rose against all seven major currencies on the week, USD/JPY touched 160, and gold fell 4.61%.
Expected Fed hikes strengthen the dollar and raise the cost of holding commodities priced in dollars, which tends to weigh on grain and oilseed prices. Higher US rates also tighten financing for buyers and traders.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.