
Live cattle futures closed near session highs after a second day of gains, despite China's announced tariff on U.S. beef and Japan's beef tariff reset to 38.5%. Cash cattle trade was light, with asking prices near $120 live.
Boxed beef was mixed.
Tariffs on U.S. beef exports reduce foreign demand for beef, which pressures cattle values, but futures rallied on technical bounces. Market direction stays sensitive to whether China's tariff is actually implemented.
After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 47 past bullish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.