
Argentina's drought and La Niña heat have delayed planting, and the Rosario exchange cut its 2017/18 soybean production forecast to 52 million tonnes. Brazil's crop is still expected above 110 million tonnes despite flooding.
Argentina's smaller crop cuts soymeal supply from the largest meal exporter, which Rabobank expects to keep soymeal prices strong and raise feed costs.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.