
Rabobank analyst Gorjan Nikolik says the cancellation of Peru's anchovy season is depleting fishmeal and fish oil inventories. Fishmeal and fish oil prices are expected to reach record highs amid an acute supply shortage.
The cancellation was linked to El Niño conditions.
Peru is a major global fishmeal exporter, so a lost season removes a large share of protein feed supply. Prices are likely to rise further, pushing up costs for aquafeed and livestock feed buyers who use fishmeal and soy substitutes.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.