El Niño is weakening the Humboldt Current, reducing upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water off Peru and Chile. The analysis links this to a squeeze on anchovy supply and higher fishmeal prices.
Lower anchovy catch cuts global fishmeal supply, pushing up fishmeal prices and raising feed costs for aquaculture and livestock producers who substitute with soybean meal.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.