StoneX expects Brazil fertilizer prices to diverge in Q4 2026, with nitrogen staying firm, potash stable and phosphates open to some correction. Supply constraints, including Chinese MAP and DAP export curbs and high sulfur costs, are capping phosphate output.
Firm nitrogen and phosphate supply constraints keep input costs elevated for Brazilian growers, while potash stability limits upside. Phosphate price relief would mainly help growers buying for the second crop or 2027.
在过去 129 次看涨的政策事件之后,尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(47% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.3% 至 +2.3%),20 个交易日内为 +1.4%。
在过去 29 次中性的政策事件之后,DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(55% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.4% 至 +1.3%),20 个交易日内为 +1.9%。
历史可比事件尚不足,暂无法给出历史解读。
历史可比事件尚不足,暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。