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Rabobank's second quarter global beef report identifies weather as the most disruptive influence on the US beef complex, with extreme drought across Southern Plains grazing regions forcing early calf placements. Cattle on feed was estimated at 11.5 million head as of May 1, 5% above last year.
Drought-forced placements have inflated feedlot numbers and risk bunched fed cattle marketings this summer, pressuring cash fed cattle prices. Continued drought could trigger liquidation and tighter supplies into 2019.
beefmagazine.comBurt Rutherford2018年5月30日在过去 18 次看跌的天气事件之后，活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（56% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.7% 至 +0.9%），20 个交易日内为 -0.1%。
在过去 29 次看跌的天气事件之后，架子牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%（62% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.5% 至 +2.6%），20 个交易日内为 +2.4%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Southern Plains drought forcing early calf placements implies tighter future feeder supplies, a supportive supply factor, though the early placements would be bearish near term.
