Gleadell's David Sheppard says the US-China trade dispute has kept grain markets nervous, with the downturn spilling into wheat even as dryness in eastern EU and downgraded Russian and Ukrainian crop estimates support values. Analysts put Russia's crop at 67-73 million tonnes and expect EU wheat exports of 21-21.5 million tonnes, below the USDA's 24 million.
Lower crop estimates from the Black Sea and EU could tighten world wheat supplies and limit price declines, though trade-war anxiety keeps prices volatile for feed buyers.
在过去 206 次中性的贸易事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%(53% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.3% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 +0.5%。
在过去 683 次看跌的贸易事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(47% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
在过去 803 次看跌的贸易事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(51% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.7%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。