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Shipment data since July shows Brazil and the US both sold more soybeans despite Chinese tariffs. Brazilian October originations traded at a 27% premium to Gulf origins, enough to offset the 25% tariff if China allows, while China is pushing to cut soybean imports about 10%.
Redirected flows to Brazil and cheap US fire-sale supplies cap soybean prices, while China's stated plan to reduce soymeal-heavy feed use signals lasting weaker demand for soybean meal.
在过去 803 次看跌的贸易事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(51% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.7%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 384 次看跌的贸易事件之后,豆粕 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(47% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。