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Energy Intelligence reports that analysts expect IMO 2020 to create a major compliant-fuel supply gap and raise diesel's premium to crude, while refiners and traders see enough flexibility to limit distortions. Diesel futures for January 2020 are little changed from current levels, and the HSFO-diesel spread is widening but within historical norms.
Market views are split on whether IMO 2020 will lift diesel relative to crude, which determines future diesel and freight cost exposure. Current futures pricing suggests the market has not yet priced in a major shock.
energyintel.com2019年3月20日在过去 11 次中性的宏观事件之后，ULSD / 柴油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.8%（64% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.6% 至 +4.1%），20 个交易日内为 +3.9%。
在过去 54 次中性的宏观事件之后，原油(Brent) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（57% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.8% 至 +2.5%），20 个交易日内为 +0.6%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
