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The JRC MARS February 2020 bulletin reports that 1 January to 10 February was warmer than usual across Europe, with record warmth in parts of France and the North Sea, Baltic and eastern European regions. Winter cereal frost hardening is weaker than normal in Germany, Poland, the Baltics, Ukraine, south-western Russia and the British Isles, while Mediterranean areas and the northern Iberian peninsula face precipitation deficits.
Weak frost hardening and dry spots raise some risk to winter wheat and barley if a cold snap arrives, and spring rainfall will be needed for regrowth. Unless damage materialises, the impact is modest, but it adds marginal upside risk to European feed grain prices.
publications.jrc.ec.europa.euBUSSAY ATTILA, CEGLAR ANDREJ, CERRANI IACOPO, Giacinto Manfron, PANARELLO LORENZO, SEGUINI LORENZO, et al.2020年1月1日在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 445 次中性的天气事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（52% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
