
SovEcon analyst Andrey Sizov says wheat markets have further upside after Ukrainian drones hit 116 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov over nine days. Chicago wheat futures rose $0.88 per bushel, about 15%, from June 30 levels.
Russia closed navigation through the Kerch Strait, and risk premiums have increased, limiting shipping traffic.
The Sea of Azov handles about a quarter of Russian grain exports, so restricted shipping supports wheat prices globally, though a sharp reversal is a risk.
在过去 361 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.7%(58% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +3.7%),20 个交易日内为 +1.3%。
在过去 94 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后,小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%(50% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.7% 至 +5.8%),20 个交易日内为 +0.1%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Analyst view of further upside after Azov vessel strikes and Kerch closure supported continued risk-premium buying.