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Fertilizer prices jumped after US military strikes involving Iran, with New Orleans urea physical prices up about $70/t and second-half March values reportedly climbing to about $550. Market participants expect UAN, anhydrous ammonia and phosphate prices to follow urea higher if tensions persist.
Broad nitrogen and phosphate price increases ahead of planting raise input costs for US crop producers, supporting higher feed-grain costs and tightening farm affordability.
rfdtv.comTony St. James, Marion Kirkpatrick, Alex Heider2026年3月3日在过去 205 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（53% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.1% 至 +3.0%），20 个交易日内为 -0.4%。
在过去 114 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%（50% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.3% 至 +1.2%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 323 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%（57% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.5% 至 +2.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Physical urea at New Orleans rose about $70/t with second-half March values near $550, confirming the supply-shock repricing.
Fertilizer price surge on Middle East escalation (US strikes involving Iran) lifted urea and was expected to pull phosphates like DAP higher via sentiment and Gulf supply-risk, but it is dated one day after the move window so it likely reflects the same geopolitical shock rather than a clean cause.
