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Fertiliser prices have risen nearly 30% since the start of 2022, after an 80% surge in 2021. Urea has surpassed its 2008 peak, and phosphate and potash are approaching 2008 levels.
Drivers include high gas and coal costs, sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and Chinese export restrictions.
Sanctions and Chinese export curbs are restricting supply of urea, DAP and potash, keeping prices high. Buyers face elevated input costs that are likely to persist into next season.
在过去 205 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后,尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%(53% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.1% 至 +3.0%),20 个交易日内为 -0.4%。
在过去 114 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后,DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(50% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.3% 至 +1.2%),20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
历史可比事件尚不足,暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。