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CoBank argues that fertilizer prices, especially phosphates, will stay above pre-Iran war levels through 2028. It says the current disruption stems from damaged production capacity and raw-material constraints rather than rerouted trade, making it longer-lasting than the 2022 shock.
Ammonia and sulfur are highlighted as key cost drivers, with three of the world's ten largest ammonia exporters behind Hormuz.
Persistent input costs for nitrogen and phosphate raise the cost base for feed grain and oilseed production, supporting prices over the medium term. Demand destruction from high fertilizer costs could partly offset this.
cobank.comJacqui Fatka2026年9月1日在过去 205 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（53% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.1% 至 +3.0%），20 个交易日内为 -0.4%。
在过去 114 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%（50% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.3% 至 +1.2%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
