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Rabobank analysts say the next U.S. cow herd expansion will face headwinds including elevated beef production, higher interest rates, higher feed costs and demographic factors. They expect producers to remain two years or more from shifting to expansion, with rebuilding starting in 2025 at the earliest.
The report suggests a slower and more cautious herd recovery.
A delayed herd rebuild keeps beef supply tight for longer, supporting cattle prices, while higher financing and feed costs raise price risk for producers and processors.
drovers.comPaige Carlson2023年1月31日在过去 28 次看涨的宏观事件之后，活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.3%（39% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.2% 至 +0.9%），20 个交易日内为 +1.7%。
在过去 21 次看涨的宏观事件之后，架子牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（62% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.7% 至 +1.4%），20 个交易日内为 +2.4%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
