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Wheat prices are being pulled between strong, cheap Russian exports and prolonged US Plains dryness hitting the HRW crop, with US winter wheat rated only 27% good-excellent. A Russian export floor price of US$275/t FOB is rumored, and a 60-day Black Sea corridor extension expires May 18.
Cheap Russian supply caps SRW, EU and Black Sea values, while poor US HRW conditions keep a drought premium in KC futures. Buyers face continued volatility until rains arrive or the corridor is resolved.
在过去 322 次看涨的天气事件之后,小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(49% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +3.2%),20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。
在过去 334 次看跌的天气事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(47% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.9% 至 +1.7%),20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。