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A Reuters survey of five analysts and traders forecasts Australian wheat production in the 2025/26 season at about 28.6 million tonnes on average, roughly 16% below the prior record harvest. Forecasts range from 27 to 30.75 million tonnes, and ABARES estimated 30.5 million tonnes in March.
Drought is cutting soil moisture in parts of the country, with South Australia and Victoria facing the most severe dryness.
A smaller Australian crop reduces exportable wheat supply just as the new marketing year begins, which tends to support world wheat prices. Buyers relying on wheat and barley for feed should expect firmer offers if the dryness persists.
ukragroconsult.com2025年4月2日在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
