加载中…
Rabobank's semi-annual outlook says global fertilizer markets are entering a contraction phase as high prices erode affordability. It forecasts weaker demand in 2025 and a sharper decline in 2026, with urea consumption falling and phosphate consumption about 4% lower globally.
Lower fertilizer demand in 2026 eases the cost pressure on crop input budgets and could soften urea and phosphate prices, although tight supply from China limits the downside. Weaker input use can also affect future crop yields and grain balances.
rabobank.comBruno Fonseca Analyst2025年10月28日在过去 42 次看跌的报告事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%（57% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.9% 至 +3.3%），20 个交易日内为 +2.9%。
在过去 35 次看跌的报告事件之后，DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 0.0%（37% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.7% 至 +1.5%），20 个交易日内为 +0.6%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Rabobank's outlook for a contraction phase and roughly 4% lower phosphate consumption signals weakening demand sentiment that supports a price decline.
Rabobank's outlook for a demand contraction (phosphate consumption down about 4%) published 2025-10-28 would weigh on DAP sentiment shortly before the drop.
