War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply

在过去 37 次天气事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.4%（73% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.1% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +5.6%。

• 2026年5月31日Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-21.5%
• 2021年9月3日US Nola urea barges hit 9 year high with supply tightening post Hurricane Ida+8.6%
• 2021年2月19日US Gulf urea values recover as gas diversions and production cutbacks bring producers to the market; activity elsewhere limited+1.5%
• 2026年1月21日Natural Gas Prices Soar as Winter Storm Is Set to Drop Snow, Ice Across Massive Swath of the US - Bloomberg+1.6%
• 2025年2月23日US natural gas prices surge as La Niña replaces El Niño – Chemicals and the Economy-0.3%

在过去 322 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +3.2%），20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。

• 2018年5月29日Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-7.5%
• 2026年5月31日Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-4.5%
• 2019年5月15日The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+8.5%
• 2025年1月29日Possible frost damage to crops in the United States supported wheat prices, which are gradually declining+6.0%
• 2026年9月21日Wheat prices near multi-year highs as war, weather, and harvest shortfalls converge By Investing.com-4.1%

在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。

• 2018年5月29日Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-0.9%
• 2026年5月31日Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-2.6%
• 2019年5月15日The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+11.2%
• 2021年5月13日A"maize"ing global support for wheat prices | The Land | NSW-1.8%
• 2025年5月9日Tight Wheat Supply Leaves Prices at Mercy of Any Weather Shocks - Bloomberg-0.1%