Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low

在过去 30 次看涨的天气事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.4%（67% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.3% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +9.1%。

• 2026年4月29日Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says | The Star-9.4%
• 2023年7月24日Western Australia out of urea, suppliers assure they have enough to fill orders | Farm Weekly | WA+31.8%
• 2026年4月2日Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming - Joint Research Centre+1.6%
• 2025年3月5日From Seed to Success: Plan for Your Largest Corn Harvest in 2025 with Drought-Proofing Strategies - AgWeb-0.8%
• 2026年1月21日Natural Gas Prices Soar as Winter Storm Is Set to Drop Snow, Ice Across Massive Swath of the US - Bloomberg+1.6%

在过去 322 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +3.2%），20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。

• 2026年4月28日Wheat Futures Surge to Highest Since 2024 on US Drought, Fertilizer Costs - Bloomberg+2.3%
• 2026年4月30日Wheat Prices Jump as Drought Threatens U.S. Output - WSJ-2.1%
• 2026年3月31日Wheat Prices Surge on US Drought and Planting Uncertainty-3.0%
• 2026年3月31日War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply-3.0%
• 2026年3月26日Wheat spread hits one-year high as drought fears grow in US plains-0.6%

在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。

• 2026年4月28日Wheat Futures Surge to Highest Since 2024 on US Drought, Fertilizer Costs - Bloomberg-2.0%
• 2026年4月30日Wheat Prices Jump as Drought Threatens U.S. Output - WSJ-3.2%
• 2026年3月31日Wheat Prices Surge on US Drought and Planting Uncertainty-0.7%
• 2026年3月31日War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply-0.7%
• 2017年7月6日Food Prices Near 2-Year High Thanks to a Record Surge in Butter and Wheat - Bloomberg-1.4%