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European importers reported Argentine soybean meal shipments containing traces of the GMO event HB4, which is not authorized in the EU. The reports triggered rejection fears and pushed CBOT soybean futures nearly 3% higher on April 27.
Argentine Up River meal basis fell to a two-month low at a $7/short ton discount to CBOT.
Possible rejections of Argentine meal, the world's largest meal export flow, would shift EU demand toward US meal and widen Argentine export discounts. Buyers should expect firmer CBOT meal and soybean prices and weaker South American basis.
spglobal.comJose Roberto Gomes, Nanditha Kinavoor madathil, Elizabeth Machuca, Paola Caballeros2026年4月28日在过去 342 次看涨的贸易事件之后，豆粕 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（51% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +2.6%），20 个交易日内为 +0.6%。
在过去 696 次看涨的贸易事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.3% 至 +1.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
EU detection of unauthorized HB4 GMO traces in Argentine meal raised rejection fears and cut Argentine supply availability, driving CBOT soybean and meal futures about 3% higher on April 27.
