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The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1656 on Tuesday, its lowest since January, and sterling touched its weakest level against the dollar since December. Gilt yields rose on concerns that higher oil prices will feed into inflation.
JPMorgan said Brent at $100-$120 could push the euro to $1.10-$1.13 if the conflict lasts more than three weeks.
A sustained oil spike would raise European energy and inflation pressures, weakening the euro and sterling and tightening financial conditions. Higher Brent also raises diesel and freight costs for feed supply chains.
reuters.comAlun John2026年3月2日在过去 656 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，原油(Brent) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.9%（63% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.7% 至 +6.6%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
在过去 36 次看跌的地缘政治事件之后，欧元(每 EUR 的 USD) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -1.0%（22% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.8% 至 -0.3%），20 个交易日内为 -0.7%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 89 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，美元(广义) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%（74% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.0% 至 +1.0%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Euro hit its lowest since January on Iran war widening and oil-inflation worries, with JPMorgan flagging further downside if Brent stays elevated; dated 2 March so coincident with the move.
Euro and sterling weakness against the dollar on oil-inflation fears matches the move, though the report is dated slightly after March 2 (Tuesday).
