◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2020. 1. 28.질병중국

Coronavirus Fears Prompt Flight to Safety in Commodity Markets

Commodity markets fell on January 27-28, 2020 as coronavirus fears threatened Chinese demand for crude oil, soybeans, and other goods, with energy, base metals and grains down more than 1.5%. China extended its Lunar New Year holiday, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index slipped 1.1%, while gold rose as a safe haven.

중요한 이유

Expected drops in Chinese consumption and construction activity lower demand expectations for soybeans, grains and crude, while safe-haven flows into gold reflect broader risk aversion.

영향 대상대두▼옥수수▼밀 (SRW)▼원유 (Brent)▼원유 (WTI)▼

출처 1건
caixinglobal.com2020. 1. 28.

가격 반응 및 이력

대두▼하락현재까지1d -0.3%5d -2.3%20d -2.0%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 50건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+2.4%), 20거래일 동안 +0.0%.

2020. 2. 28.China's soy complex demand likely to fall in H1 2020 on coronavirus outbreak: Rabobank | S&P Global+0.3%
2019. 4. 14.Deadly Pig Disease to Reshape Global Soy Markets for Years - Bloomberg-2.0%
2020. 3. 28.Coronavirus hits already struggling US farmers with drop in prices-3.1%
2021. 3. 4.Hog Disease Outbreak in China Triggers Surge in U.S. Prices - Caixin Global+0.1%
2020. 2. 18.India's poultry sales decline amid coronavirus rumors linked to chickens-2.2%

옥수수▼하락현재까지1d +0.9%5d -0.8%20d -2.1%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 175건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.5%), 20거래일 동안 +0.6%.

2020. 3. 3.Farm commodities take hit from coronavirus fears+1.3%
2019. 4. 14.Deadly Pig Disease to Reshape Global Soy Markets for Years - Bloomberg+0.4%
2021. 6. 21.Swine Fever Variants Lead to Mass Outbreaks Across China - Caixin Global-3.3%
2020. 3. 4.Coronavirus complicates ASF situation in China | Feed Strategy+1.1%
2021. 7. 22.Avian flu outbreak compounds plight of Ghanaian poultry industry - Global Times-2.8%

밀 (SRW)▼하락현재까지1d -0.1%5d -0.5%20d +2.7%

과거 질병 이벤트 14건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.3% 변동(상승 29%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.7%~+0.5%), 20거래일 동안 -0.8%.

2020. 3. 3.Farm commodities take hit from coronavirus fears+6.1%
2020. 1. 30.Coronavirus likely to drag wheat prices as Chinese demand falls | Analysis & Features | The Grocer-0.0%
2021. 11. 26.First Thing Today: Grain, livestock markets expected to face pressure from global risk-off trade after Thanksgiving - Pro Farmer-0.8%
2020. 2. 25.Soybeans bounce, corn stabilizes after Monday's coronavirus crash | Financial Post-0.2%
2020. 2. 26.Why have wheat prices taken a turn for the worse? Grain Market Daily | AHDB-0.2%

원유 (Brent)▼하락현재까지1d +0.9%5d -8.0%20d -4.1%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 26건 이후, 원유 (Brent)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -6.0% 변동(상승 15%; 중간 50% 범위 -13.3%~-2.0%), 20거래일 동안 -6.8%.

2020. 2. 5.Commodity Tracker: Coronavirus and commodity markets | S&P Global+0.1%
2020. 1. 27.Oil hits more than 3-month low on fears coronavirus will slow growth-3.4%
2020. 1. 22.Fueled by concerns over the ‘China virus,’ oil markets tumble - FreightWaves-7.3%
2020. 1. 30.How coronavirus, climate change and OPEC will continue to move crude oil prices-7.2%
2020. 2. 3.Oil hits 13-month lows as coronavirus cuts demand-6.0%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

밀 (SRW)-2.6%1개 기간 · 2020. 1. 27.까지-4.0σ
Coronavirus-driven commodity selloff on Jan 27-28 hit grains including wheat via fears of weaker Chinese demand and risk-off sentiment, matching the timing of the 1-day drop.
원유 (Brent)-9.0%5개 기간 · 2020. 1. 27.까지-2.9σ
Broad commodity selloff on Jan 27 with energy down over 1.5% shows the cross-asset flight from China demand risk that weighed on crude.
원유 (WTI)-9.3%5개 기간 · 2020. 1. 27.까지-2.8σ
Broad commodity selloff on Jan 27-28 on threatened Chinese demand included crude, showing cross-market risk-off.

대두 SOY · GP ▸

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옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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