◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2018. 9. 12.날씨글로벌

Future impacts of El Niño, La Niña likely to intensify

A new study funded by the NSF and US Department of Energy, published in Geophysical Research Letters, finds that future El Niño and La Niña events are likely to produce more intense impacts on temperature, precipitation and wildfire risk over many land regions. The researchers highlight greater wildfire danger in the US Southwest during La Niña and wetter, cooler conditions with higher flood risk during El Niño.

중요한 이유

The findings are long-term climate projections rather than near-term supply shocks, so they carry little immediate price signal. They do underline that ENSO-driven weather swings affecting grain and oilseed regions may become more severe over time.

영향 대상옥수수 대두 밀 (SRW)팜유

출처 1건
eurekalert.org2018. 9. 12.

가격 반응 및 이력

옥수수방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d -2.4%5d -2.5%20d -0.1%

과거 날씨 이벤트 2,467건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.6%.

2025. 6. 6.Texas Agriculture • June 6, 2025 • El Niño nor La Niña likely to impact Lone Star State this summer-2.1%
2024. 3. 28.El Niño to La Niña-2.0%
2026. 3. 25.Return of El Niño expected, but impacts not likely until fall | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.0%
2021. 8. 18.La Niña’s Likely Return Could Impact Brazil, US Corn-1.4%
2024. 1. 16.Potential impacts of El Niño on crop production | AGDAILY-0.4%

대두방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d +1.1%5d -0.8%20d +5.2%

과거 날씨 이벤트 1,964건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.8%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

2024. 3. 28.El Niño to La Niña-1.0%
2026. 3. 25.Return of El Niño expected, but impacts not likely until fall | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.4%
2024. 1. 16.Potential impacts of El Niño on crop production | AGDAILY+1.5%
2022. 1. 14.La Niña Conditions Likely to Continue into Spring - AgWeb+3.6%
2022. 9. 27.La Niña to Impact Global Agriculture for 3rd Straight Winter | Feed & Grain-2.6%

밀 (SRW)방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d -0.4%5d -6.9%20d -6.6%

과거 날씨 이벤트 1,773건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 52%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.1%), 20거래일 동안 +0.2%.

2024. 7. 1.El Niño and La Niña: Impact on Global Agriculture and What to Expect Next+6.6%
2021. 3. 3.La Niña weakens, but influence likely to continue into autumn-2.4%
2024. 1. 16.Potential impacts of El Niño on crop production | AGDAILY-0.8%
2022. 9. 27.La Niña to Impact Global Agriculture for 3rd Straight Winter | Feed & Grain+1.8%
2024. 3. 4.El Niño weakens but impacts continue+7.2%

팜유방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d -1.0%5d -1.8%20d -3.2%

과거 날씨 이벤트 361건 이후, 팜유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.3%~+1.3%), 20거래일 동안 -0.2%.

2024. 1. 16.Potential impacts of El Niño on crop production | AGDAILY-0.2%
2023. 5. 2.Anticipating The Impact of El Niño on Food Security+11.1%
2026. 9. 5.AgroENSO Maps El Niño Impacts on Argentina Crops-1.6%
2018. 9. 10.New El Niño weather event likely this winter says WMO-1.2%
2023. 7. 7.Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024-0.1%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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대두 SOY · GP ▸

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