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2025. 8. 12.날씨글로벌

With Chances of a La Niña Increasing, What Would This Mean For Coffee?

StoneX's Coffee Network article says ENSO-neutral is present with a 56% chance through August-October, and La Niña chances rise into fall and winter 2025-26. It lists typical La Niña impacts, including drier conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina and heavier rain in Colombia and Vietnam.

중요한 이유

The article concerns coffee rather than feed grains, so its impact on feed commodities is indirect, though La Niña drought risk in South America would be a feed-relevant factor.

영향 대상옥수수 대두 밀 (SRW)팜유

출처 1건
stonex.comAlexis Rubinstein2025. 8. 12.

가격 반응 및 이력

옥수수방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d −2.1%5d +0.0%20d +4.3%

과거 날씨 이벤트 2,467건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.6%.

2017. 8. 14.What Does Lack of El Niño, La Niña Mean For Winter? | The Weather Channel-2.0%
2024. 7. 29.What Does La Niña Mean for Agricultural Markets? Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar Changes - Bloomberg-1.0%
2023. 5. 5.What an El Niño could mean for food prices - EPIC-0.2%
2021. 10. 19.La Niña Is Back—What That Means for North and South American Crops+0.7%
2025. 3. 3.What La Nina’s departure could mean for U.S. ag-0.2%

대두방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d +2.2%5d +3.2%20d +2.2%

과거 날씨 이벤트 1,964건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.8%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

2024. 7. 29.What Does La Niña Mean for Agricultural Markets? Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar Changes - Bloomberg-4.5%
2023. 5. 5.What an El Niño could mean for food prices - EPIC-0.4%
2021. 10. 19.La Niña Is Back—What That Means for North and South American Crops+1.3%
2025. 3. 3.What La Nina’s departure could mean for U.S. ag-0.1%
2025. 12. 12.La Niña Is Fading: What It Means for South American Crop Potential - AgWeb-3.8%

밀 (SRW)방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d −0.3%5d +2.8%20d −0.0%

과거 날씨 이벤트 1,773건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 52%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.1%), 20거래일 동안 +0.2%.

2024. 7. 29.What Does La Niña Mean for Agricultural Markets? Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar Changes - Bloomberg-4.2%
2023. 5. 5.What an El Niño could mean for food prices - EPIC-1.9%
2021. 3. 29.Favorable conditions for winter crops, increasing pressure on the prices of new crop wheat-0.5%
2017. 10. 24.What Will a La Nina Winter Mean for the Midwest? | CropWatch | Nebraska-4.3%
2024. 10. 10.US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-0.5%

팜유방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d +0.4%5d +2.2%20d +3.8%

과거 날씨 이벤트 361건 이후, 팜유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.3%~+1.3%), 20거래일 동안 -0.2%.

2024. 7. 29.What Does La Niña Mean for Agricultural Markets? Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar Changes - Bloomberg+1.4%
2023. 5. 5.What an El Niño could mean for food prices - EPIC+4.8%
2024. 3. 14.US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer | Reuters+1.2%
2025. 6. 19.Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts | CRUCIAL-0.5%
2020. 6. 22.IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | June Climate Briefing: La Niña Odds Increasing-0.9%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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대두 SOY · GP ▸

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