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2026. 1. 21.날씨미국

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

AgWeb reports NOAA now forecasts La Niña exiting by spring with a possible El Niño later in 2026, though meteorologists disagree on timing. Dryness persists across parts of the West, Southwest and Southern Plains, raising concerns for spring and summer planting.

중요한 이유

Persistent dryness in key US growing areas raises the risk of lower spring yields, which can support corn, soybean and wheat prices if it intensifies.

영향 대상옥수수▲대두▲밀 (HRW)▲

출처 1건
agweb.com2026. 1. 21.

가격 반응 및 이력

옥수수▲상승현재까지1d -0.4%5d +0.8%20d +0.6%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 1,465건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 54%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+1.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2025. 3. 14.Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer - AgWeb+6.8%
2023. 5. 24.The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-3.4%
2026. 3. 13.El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb+4.1%
2024. 2. 26.964. Convergence of El Niño and Expected Transition to La Niña | Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences | JIRCAS+0.5%
2022. 1. 14.La Niña Conditions Likely to Continue into Spring - AgWeb-0.1%

대두▲상승현재까지1d +1.1%5d +1.4%20d +7.6%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 1,079건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.3% 변동(상승 54%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+2.0%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2025. 3. 14.Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer - AgWeb+1.6%
2023. 5. 24.The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-1.7%
2026. 3. 13.El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb-3.7%
2024. 2. 26.964. Convergence of El Niño and Expected Transition to La Niña | Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences | JIRCAS+0.9%
2022. 1. 14.La Niña Conditions Likely to Continue into Spring - AgWeb+3.6%

밀 (HRW)▲상승현재까지1d -0.6%5d +1.9%20d +5.4%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 322건 이후, 밀 (HRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.1% 변동(상승 49%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.5%~+3.2%), 20거래일 동안 +1.0%.

2022. 1. 14.La Niña Conditions Likely to Continue into Spring - AgWeb+4.4%
2021. 10. 14.Q&A: La Nina's back and it's not good for parts of dry West | AP News+5.3%
2022. 3. 23.Early Spring Drought Review for US Grain and Oilseed Crops-8.2%
2023. 8. 25.Latest Canadian Durum Wheat, Soy, and Canola production estimates raise supply and quality concerns-3.5%
2025. 9. 8.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Drought Outlook in the United States | September 8, 2025 | Drought.gov+1.1%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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대두 SOY · GP ▸

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