
Danske Bank analysts see signs the Brazilian recession is easing, with Q2 GDP falling 2.9% y/y versus 3.8% in Q1. They forecast near-term real strength on higher commodity prices and a slightly undervalued currency, but expect USD/BRL to rise from mid-2017 as China slows.
A forecast of a stronger real near term and weaker commodity prices later affects the cost of Brazilian soy and corn exports priced in dollars. Expected easing of Brazil's rate cycle is a modest macro factor for domestic feed demand.
Setelah 213 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median -0,2% selama 5 sesi (46% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +0,9%), dan +0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.