
Danske Bank expects the Central Bank of Brazil to keep easing through 2017 and 2018 after its 100bp cut to 8.25% in September. It forecasts USD/BRL at 3.15 in three months, 3.10 in six months and 3.05 in twelve months, citing political turbulence around President Temer as the main risk.
A firmer real over the coming year would make Brazilian soybean and corn exports more expensive in dollar terms, which is mildly supportive for US competitors and for feed grain prices.
Setelah 213 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median -0,2% selama 5 sesi (46% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +0,9%), dan +0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.