Memuat…
The Brazilian real and Mexican peso each fell at least 1.8% against the dollar on Tuesday, and the Indonesian rupiah dropped more than 2%, prompting Bank Indonesia to intervene. Carry traders unwound positions amid volatility and a resurgent dollar.
China also unexpectedly weakened its daily yuan reference rate.
Weaker emerging-market currencies raise the local-currency cost of imports and can make exporters like Brazil and Mexico more price-competitive, while the stronger dollar pressures dollar-denominated commodity prices. Chinese yuan weakness can also signal softer import demand.
bloomberg.comMaria Elena Vizcaino, Srinivasan Sivabalan16 Apr 2024Setelah 2.356 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Dolar AS (Luas) bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (60% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,3% sampai +0,7%), dan +0,4% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 301 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,2% sampai +1,7%), dan +1,0% selama 20 sesi.
Belum cukup peristiwa historis yang sebanding untuk analisis historis.
Setelah 398 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Yuan Tiongkok (CNY per USD) bergerak median +0,0% selama 5 sesi (56% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,3% sampai +0,5%), dan +0,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Dated on the final day of the window, it describes a broad EM selloff driven by a resurgent dollar, higher US yields and carry-trade unwinding, with the real falling at least 1.8% that day, which directly explains the BRL weakness.
EM currency weakness on 2024-04-16 shows a broad dollar surge on higher yields, contributing to the broad index move.
