
Benchmark US crude futures tumbled after Iran's retaliation for US weekend bombings targeted a US military base in Qatar rather than energy infrastructure or tankers. Futures settled 7.2% lower at $68.51 a barrel after a ceasefire announcement.
Iran's limited response reduced fears of a Strait of Hormuz disruption, removing a supply-risk premium from crude. Lower energy prices weaken the cost support for biofuel-linked oils and feed ingredients.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
US crude fell 7.2% after Iran's retaliation targeted a military base rather than energy infrastructure, a supply-risk repricing that carried over to Brent on the same day.
US crude settled 7.2% lower after Iran's retaliation targeted a base rather than energy infrastructure, easing supply fears.
US crude fell 7.2% after Iran's retaliation hit a base rather than energy infrastructure and a ceasefire followed, reflecting a supply-risk repricing.