
Goldman Sachs expects Chinese exporters to keep converting dollar earnings into yuan, and now forecasts the dollar at 6.30 yuan in twelve months, down from 6.40. The bank puts the onshore rate at 6.60 in three months and 6.50 in six, and forecasts China's goods surplus rising to US$1.3tn in 2026.
A stronger yuan changes the cost of Chinese purchases of US and Brazilian feed ingredients priced in dollars, and a firmer currency tends to support Chinese import demand for soybeans and meal.
After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.